Texas vs San Jose State Odds, Picks and Prediction for Sept. 6: Longhorns Set for a Statement Bounce-Back

Texas walked into the season with the No. 1 ranking and walked out of Week 1 with a bruise, falling 14-7 at Ohio State. Now the Longhorns return to Austin as 36.5-point favorites against San Jose State, a Spartans team that just lost 16-14 at home to Central Michigan as a two-touchdown favorite. That combination—Texas off a stumble, San Jose State off a shocker—sets the stage for a lopsided afternoon in the heat at DKR.

If you’re shopping the market, the headline here is simple: Texas vs San Jose State odds point one way. The Longhorns have spent the past year destroying teams beneath the top tier. Their only losses came to Ohio State and Georgia. Against the likes of Colorado State, UTSA, and UL Monroe last season, Texas allowed only 10 total points while hanging 51-plus in each game. When there’s a gap, they widen it.

San Jose State arrives with confidence shaken. The Spartans were supposed to handle Central Michigan and didn’t. They struggled to finish drives and never found a rhythm. That’s not the kind of form you want heading into Austin against an angry roster loaded with blue-chip depth.

What to know about the matchup

Arch Manning owns the spotlight. He didn’t get much going in Columbus, but this is the classic reset: home field, favorable coverage looks, and a defense that won’t squeeze windows the way Ohio State did. Manning threw four touchdowns in last year’s rout of UTSA, and this is another opportunity to get back to quick reads, defined shots, and tempo that keeps the chains moving.

The support is there. Texas returns size and continuity up front, and the pass-catchers should win one-on-ones all afternoon. Expect Steve Sarkisian to script early throws to get Manning in rhythm—slants, outs, and play-action shots—before the vertical game opens up.

The ground game should hum. Quintrevion Wisner ran 16 times for 80 yards against a loaded Ohio State front. Against San Jose State, the math leans to bigger lanes and more chunk runs. If Texas leans on the inside zone and duo early, it will keep the Spartans’ linebackers guessing and set up the deep crossers Sark loves.

On the other side, the Hill Country heat and Texas’s defensive speed can stack downs against San Jose State. This is where the talent gap usually wrecks upsets before they start. The Longhorns’ front should control first down, put the Spartans behind schedule, and force throws into tight windows. That’s how Texas turned lesser foes into non-events last year: win the line, win field position, and let the offense pile up possessions.

One game script risk for bettors is the backdoor cover. Big favorites can cruise, rotate in reserves, and give up a late score. But Texas didn’t flirt much with that last season in these spots. When they had weaker opponents down, they stayed down. If the Longhorns lead by four scores at half, you’ll likely see the playbook stay aggressive into the third quarter to put this away.

There’s also the noon ET (11 a.m. local) kick to consider. Early starts can mean slow beginnings. Still, the early start usually hurts the road team more—especially one making a long trip and dealing with the heat. If Texas opens a little flat, the run game should steady them until the explosives arrive.

Betting angles and picks

It’s a big number, and the market knows it. But the matchup screams one-way traffic. Texas has the defensive horsepower to choke off early drives and the offensive balance to stack touchdowns without needing trickery. San Jose State’s Week 1 loss doesn’t automatically make them a disaster, but it does raise alarms about how they’ll handle a step up in class.

• Spread pick: Texas -36.5
• Lean: Arch Manning over 2.5 passing touchdowns
• Lean: Quintrevion Wisner over 71.5 rushing yards

Why lay the points?

• Talent gap at every level, especially in the trenches. Texas should live on San Jose State’s side of the line of scrimmage.
• Response spot. Texas needs a clean, emphatic win after a 14-7 grinder at Ohio State, and Sarkisian’s teams have punished overmatched opponents.
• Explosive balance. If the Spartans sell out to stop the run, Manning has matchups outside. If they play light boxes, Wisner can eat clock and yards.
• Defensive squeeze. Texas allowed just 10 total points in three tune-up blowouts last year and scored at least 51 in each. That’s the blueprint.

How to approach the props:

Manning over 2.5 passing TDs makes sense if you expect a fast start and red-zone efficiency. The risk is classic blowout math—if the Longhorns rush for short scores or if Manning sits early in the fourth, the hook can bite. Still, the matchup favors clean pockets and schemed shots near the goal line.

Wisner over 71.5 rushing yards leans on volume and game flow. If Texas is up big, he’ll have fourth-quarter carries to close it out. He got to 80 against Ohio State without many freebies; this is a softer front with more missed tackles on the table.

Same-game parlay idea built around a Texas avalanche:

• Texas -36.5
• Arch Manning over 2.5 passing TDs
• Quintrevion Wisner over 71.5 rushing yards

That ticket leans into a script where Texas leads by 21+ at halftime, keeps the gas on through the third quarter, and rotates late with the cover already in hand. It also covers both paths to points—if the run game dominates early, Wisner cashes and sets up play-action touchdowns; if the pass game hits first, the defense will hand back extra possessions for more touches on the ground.

If you’re wary of the full-game spread, consider a first-half position instead. Texas tends to start fast at home in these spots, and early field position wins can cash tickets before depth charts start to shuffle late. First halves avoid the backdoor sweat that sometimes comes with fourth-quarter garbage time.

What would it take for San Jose State to hang around? Ball control, perfect special teams, and one or two explosive touchdowns. They need to keep the game in the 50s of total plays, not the 70s, and avoid third-and-long. Even then, it’s a stress test against a defense built to erase the run and a pass rush that turns hurried throws into turnovers.

Personnel rotation could matter at the margins. If Texas detonates early, Manning could give way to the backups in the fourth quarter. That’s the only real knock on the passing-TD prop. For the spread, though, that scenario still favors Texas—they’d likely be up five or six scores before any deep bench snaps.

Bottom line for bettors: Texas has the more stable paths to points, more answers if Plan A sputters, and a defense that tilts the field. San Jose State has to play nearly mistake-free just to keep this respectable. If the Longhorns score first and force the Spartans to chase, this can snowball quickly.

Game details: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Kickoff at noon ET (11 a.m. CT) at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. TV: ABC.