NBA Sunday Picks: Hornets, Nets, and Lakers-Jazz Under Lead Betting Picks

On Sunday, November 23, 2025, NBA fans and bettors turned their attention to eight key matchups — but one game stood out above the rest: the Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics playoff rematch at TD Garden in Boston. It wasn’t just another regular-season game. This was the third meeting between the two teams this season, and with both holding top-5 records in the East, the stakes felt playoff-ready. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook had the Celtics as 1.7-point favorites, but the real betting buzz wasn’t about Boston — it was about the underdogs.

Underdogs Stealing the Spotlight

The Charlotte Hornets entered as 7.5-point underdogs against the Atlanta Hawks, and surprisingly, that’s where the sharpest money was flowing. The Hornets had gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four games as underdogs, and they were still salty after getting swept by Atlanta last season. Meanwhile, the Hawks had just completed a grueling seven-game, seven-city road stretch — playing their only home game in between — and beat the New Orleans Pelicans 115-98 the night before. But fatigue? That’s the wild card. The Hawks’ bench was thin, and their starters had logged heavy minutes. Here’s the thing: underdogs with recent momentum often outperform expectations. The Hornets weren’t just playing for pride — they were playing for revenge.

Even more compelling was the Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors matchup. The Nets, with a dismal 3-11 record, were 12.5-point underdogs — but they’d just pulled off a stunning 113-105 upset over the Celtics as 14-point dogs on Friday. That win wasn’t a fluke. Brooklyn had covered the spread in four of their last five away games. And Toronto? They were 11-5 on the season, riding a six-game home winning streak, but their defense had shown cracks. They’d given up 118+ points in three of their last four games. The Raptors were good — but not invincible. And when a team with nothing to lose plays with house money, things get interesting.

The Under Play That Made Sense

Then there was the Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz game, with the total set at 244.5 points. The pick? Under. Why? Because neither team plays fast anymore. The Lakers, without Anthony Davis fully healthy, are grinding out half-court possessions. The Jazz? They’re rebuilding with rookies and second-year players who don’t shoot well enough to keep pace. ESPN’s BPI projected a 236.2-point total for the Hawks-Pelicans game — and that was the highest-scoring matchup of the day. The Lakers-Jazz game? It was projected at 238.7. That’s 5.8 points below the line. And in a league where totals are often inflated by analytics, the under felt like the smart play.

Big Favorites and the Risk Behind Them

Let’s be clear: the Denver Nuggets were massive favorites against the Sacramento Kings — 14.9 points, per BPI. The line? Nuggets -10.5. But here’s the twist: Domantas Sabonis was out for Sacramento. Without him, their rebounding collapsed. Denver’s Nikola Jokić was averaging 27.8 points and 11.9 rebounds over his last five games. The Nuggets were 8-1 ATS in their last nine as favorites. So why not just bet them? Because the Kings were 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as double-digit underdogs. And the Nuggets? They’ve lost cover in three of their last five as heavy favorites. Sometimes, the line is too high. Sometimes, the market overreacts.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons also drew attention, with BetUS recommending the Pistons as 8-point underdogs. That’s bold. But Detroit’s young core — led by Ausar Thompson and Jarrett Allen — had played tighter defense over the last two weeks. Milwaukee, meanwhile, was resting Giannis Antetokounmpo for the second straight game. The Bucks won’t lose — but will they cover? That’s the question.

Why the Injury Reports Mattered

It’s easy to ignore injury reports — until they cost you money. The New York Knicks were without OG Anunoby (OUT, hamstring) and Jalen Brunson (GTD, ankle). That’s two of their top three scorers. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks were missing Trae Young (OUT, knee) — and still won by 17 against the Pelicans. That’s not a sign of strength. It’s a sign of weak competition. The Knicks’ offense? It’s built around Brunson. Without him, they’re a shell. And yet, oddsmakers still had them as favorites in their game against the Magic. That’s where the value lies.

What’s Next? The Ripple Effect

These Sunday picks aren’t just about winning bets. They’re about reading the league’s pulse. The Nets’ upset over the Celtics sent shockwaves through the East. The Hawks’ win without Trae Young raised questions about their ceiling. And the Nuggets’ dominance? It’s not just about Jokić — it’s about depth. Denver’s bench outscored Sacramento’s by 22 points in their last meeting. That’s not luck. That’s structure.

As the season rolls into December, teams that rely on star power alone — like the Knicks or Wizards — will struggle. Teams with balance — the Nets, Hornets, even the Jazz — will find their footing. The betting market hasn’t caught up yet. And that’s where the edge is.